Change Is A Good Thing

Hello everyone!

It's football season again (on both sides of the Atlantic) which means I'm firing up the blogging effort!

I've decided to move my blog to my LinkedIn page.  If you aren't already a contact of mine I'll be happy to accept your invite to link up.



http://www.linkedin.com/in/bryanbain


I may still use this space to talk about Real Sports Analytics specific subject matter and use the LinkedIn page for more generic analytics conversations.

Either way, I welcome your comments and input.

- Bryan

Football Isn’t Hard

Like many of you I watch a lot of football.  Especially this time of year - isn't it just magical?  This year brings to us the college football "playoff system" and I'm sure the controversy left over by the BCS and its MNC (mythical national championship) will not abate.  In fact, the "Final 4" pics are sure to leave almost as much devastation in the hearts of collegiate football followers as its predecessor.

In the NFL, many of this year's story lines really could be classified as repeats of last year.  Brady is still good.  So is Manning, Rogers and Brees.  There are a lot of "so-so" QBs out there like Newton, Kaepernick (yes I did have to look up the correct spelling of that one) and Wilson as well as the always unpredictable "Romo-coaster".

But since I'm a "numbers guy" and always looking to read the tea leaves in order to find something that someone else never has, I thought it appropriate in this blog post to "rise above" the fray for a while and take more of a macro view of football.

Now, don't get me wrong.  I love the minutia and Real Sports Analytics is a fantastic way to see patterns in performance that no one else can provide.  Buried down in the bottom of our analysis though is the "raw" numbers and having seen enough of those I can provide a bird's eye view of patterns that we've discovered over the last few years.

There is a definite pattern when it comes to bad teams, good teams and great teams.  And, in the spirit of today's blog headline, football isn't really that difficult to figure out.

First of all, you need a good offensive line.  Not a great offensive line, but just one that provides good running lanes, hits their blocks and knocks the front four of the defense off the line.  As a bonus, if you can get your 5-6 guys hitting those four and then 1-2 guys getting to the next level and (at least) get in the way of a linebacker or safety, well then you've got something going on.  If your running back is consistently getting hit in the backfield then he will not get back to the line of scrimmage (much less downfield) with any regularity.

Without a good running game, your offense is inconsistent at best.  If the defensive front four is shutting down your running game then they are also (probably) getting pretty good pressure on the QB.  That leaves 7 guys on their side to cover the middle and drop back to defend a rushed QB that is probably not making the best of decisions.  That is a formula for disaster and the dream of every defensive coordinator in football.

This also leads to the dreaded "3 and out".

It's pretty obvious to most what a 3 and out means in football.  First of all, your offense had zero chance of getting into ANY kind of rhythm.  Secondly, your defense which (it seems) just got to the sideline has had ZERO opportunity to gather themselves, work with the coaches or REST.  And "WHAM" they are right back out there.  Even if they just pulled off a 3 and out on the opposition, having to jump into battle again has got to be at least a little demoralizing.

The great “ying and yang” of football in my opinion is the interactions between the offenses and defenses of the two teams on the field (paging Dr. Obvious, right?).  But I won't delve into that here, wow that could be a really long blog entry.  (and special teams and momentum shifts could be another blog unto itself)

Let me get back to my point.  In the hundreds of games and tens of thousands of downs we have watched at Real Sports Analytics the difference between winning and losing in a VAST MAJORITY of cases comes down to three simple little things.

1. Good offensive line
2. Good QB/RB combo that HANGS ONTO THE BALL (minimal fumbles/ints)
3. Good defense that can stop the run

That's it.  Pretty simple, right?

Having a great QB is a plus though, right?  But without the other two he's as useless as a bicycle to a fish.

A great RB can and will break tackles get back to the line of scrimmage, but he won't be able to do it consistently without a little help from the OL.

Oh, and even if you have those two covered, if your defense is giving up 40+ points a game?  Forget about it.

Just look at the Seahawks last year.  Wilson performed OK, heck great for a guy with less than one year's experience in the league, but still a 5 or 6 in my book.  Marshawn Lynch is a good, bruising runner, but he also had some BIG, HUGE, GAPING lanes opened for him by the OL.  (I'll rank him a 7 for now)  And then they had the legion of BOOM for a defense, those guys were a 9 or 10.  They could stuff the run AND play great man-to-man.

Their opponents in the super bowl.  Great QB, average (maybe even less than average) OL and average defense.  Match those three together on both sides of the ball and well, you saw what happened...

(Also see Alabama vs. Notre Dame from a couple of years ago, almost the exact same game)

Football Isn't Hard.  (period)

US Open 2014

Last week I had the pleasure of being a USGA volunteer for the US Open Golf Championship in Pinehurst, NC.  I’ve been a longtime member of the USGA and this was my first experience as a volunteer – it was fantastic.  I would highly recommend any USGA member reading this to volunteer for any of the USGA events including the Women’s open and Amateur open championships.

A huge congratulations to Martin Kaymer on his 2nd major win.  He was kind enough to provide my son with an autograph as he left the course on Tuesday and I’d like to think that extra bit of karma helped him on his very impressive victory this week.  Well done Martin, you played excellent golf on a very, very tough course and did it with style and grace.

Now for my thoughts on the course…

I’ve been playing golf now for almost 40 years.  I spent my formative years in Augusta, GA and have probably attended close to 30 Masters golf tournaments.  In 2005 when the US Open was last played at Pinehurst #2 I was there and when the PGA was played at Kiawah I was able to attend AND bring my children (which was very special).  I’ve played courses that have hosted US Opens, Open Championships and PGAs – still looking for my round at Augusta National (hint, hint).

My point here is not to brag it is to establish that I am NOT a “come hither” golfer or golf commentator.  I know the game, I play the game and I’ve spent a lot of time studying golf course design.  Alister MacKenzie’s book on design is a must read in my opinion (Golf Architecture).

One last disclaimer before I make my main point….  I am a HUGE Ben Crenshaw fan.  I’ve had the pleasure of meeting him on two occasions and just think the world of him and his contributions to the game over the years so what I’m about to say should NOT be viewed as an attack on Mr. Crenshaw.

Pinehurst #2 right now is a dog track.  For those of you not familiar with that vernacular, it’s a golfer’s term for a course that is not in very good shape.  I would submit that the course I grew up playing in Augusta (Augusta Municipal Golf Course – a.k.a. the “Cabbage Patch”) is playing right now in better shape.  The greens are spectacular, don’t get me wrong, but the overall condition of the course is pathetic.

(Above - Which course is which?)

Let me be specific, the tee boxes are bare and the grass is dying.  The fairways are in intolerable condition – I’d ask for my money back.

Coore and Crenshaw are responsible for this.  To intentionally kill grass and remove beautiful fairways is a crime.  Try it yourself – drive down to your local, expensive golf course with a big bucket of Round Up and see how fast YOU get arrested.

Donald Ross’ original concept for domed greens was born out of necessity.  Basically, the technology in 1907 when the course was first constructed was rudimentary at best.  Watering systems were imprecise and the sub-air systems that most top-notch courses enjoy now were 60 years in the future.  Ross needed a design that would not only accept watering but would drain evenly.  The “natural areas” that C&C have now created were there originally because of necessity, not from design.  In fact Ross attempted in several of his designs (mostly in the American Southwest) to transform brown, rough areas into well manicured, green spaces.

See any other Ross courses HERE that look like Pinehurst #2 today?

If you look back to the origins of golf, the game was created on the “wastelands” between arable land and the beach.  (Look up the origins of Scottish bunkers for some free entertainment)  This land was naturally dry, hard and mostly barren with small tufts of grass and gorse.  That was the TRUE NATURE of that land.

What’s happened at Pinehurst #2 is a tragedy.  They’ve intentionally parched the soil and killed 70% of the grass in a cheap attempt to fabricate a Scottish links course 100 miles away from the ocean.  Listening to the talking heads of the Golf Channel and ESPN blindly praise these changes frankly made me ill.

I know I’m taking the unpopular view here, chide me if you must.  But American golf 100 miles from the nearest ocean does not NOT look like this.  The Kiawah ocean course is a masterpiece because of its design and location.  Can you imagine what would happen if you attempted to make it look like Augusta National?  Pinehurst #2 should resemble, well, other courses at Pinehurst.  Let the Ross design speak for itself.

Don’t be so quick to judge

"“Judge not, that you be not judged. For with the judgment you pronounce you will be judged, and with the measure you use it will be measured to you."

- Matthew 7:1-2

Lately it seems all we hear is bad news.  The global media machine is fueled by the stuff.  The reason for this is simple, bad news sells.  Why this is remains (to me at least) to be one of the great mysteries of human kind.  I do have an admission to make, I am an information junky.  I think it stems from my business background and the necessity to always be “up” on the most current technology, business issues, trade magazines, management books, etc…

Other folks though I think are “bad news” junkies.  They anxiously await the next scandal, affair, caught-on-camera issue that will affix their attention for the next 3-4 days until the next one comes along.  The media of course are glad to oblige because they’ve got something to sell, they’re happy to produce a product from the “fuel” they receive.  I mean, how else could a complete journalistic hack like Wolf Blitzer get a nationally syndicated show for several hours each day on a major network???

I’m refuse to delve into the most current of these.  Honestly it’s hard for me to keep track of what the latest “hot button” issue is in the media.  (I think it has something to do with a senile 80 year old man saying something racist, wow that’s news?)

One of the more media “hyped” events occurs whenever a NFL (or major college for that matter) athlete is arrested.  From my experience it seems that NFL players end up with cuffed hands behind their backs, being walked into police stations for things that most of us would pay a fine and drive home.  (You can’t tell me there aren’t some high 5s going around the precinct when a major sports figure is arrested for driving too fast.)

So now I come to my point.  Think that NFL players (or athletes in general) are a bunch of thugs?  Here’s a link to a great article I came across the other day:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/15/nfl-arrest-problem-more-about-perceptions-than-statistics/

For those of you with borderline ADD (like me) that don’t want to read the entire article the main statistic here is that the NFL has a 1.9% arrest rate for current players (2010 data).  Now, compare that to the arrest record of the rest of the US population – 4.9 PERCENT!

That’s right folks, the NFL has a much, much lower arrest record than the general population of the United States.

Even more surprising given that the NFL registers 67% of players as being African American.

Wait, what?  Hang on, the media has me believing that black folks have a higher arrest rate than any other ethnic group.  Well, from everything I’ve read (not from Wolf Blitzer or CNN mind you) that is the case.  So, if a majority of NFL players are a minority then logic would only dictate that the % would be much higher.

So, what’s the reason behind this?  Well, I can only tell you from my personal experience.  Current (and former) NFL players that I know are kind, generous, hard-working and intelligent men.  98.1% of them in fact completely stay out of trouble and are very thankful for the gifts they’ve received in this life and are making the most out of them.  The ones that I personally know are good family men, good business men, and well, just a pleasure to be around.

Here’s my main point.  Don't believe all that the media tries to sell you on this issue.  Don't read the front page of the paper or the front page of a news web site, but dig deeper.  Get down and dirty in the local section of your paper, it's typically buried under the obituaries on page C6.  What are you looking for?  Well, good news of course.  It only gets printed if there's space, but you can usually find it if you look hard enough.  And especially during the holidays you’ll usually find something about a famous (or not-so-famous) athlete doing something good in the community.

In fact, let me make it very easy for you...   (thank you for reading)

Andre Johnson and the $19,000 toy shopping spree

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/shutdown-corner/texans-wr-andre-johnson-drops-19k-toy-shopping-205258442--nfl.html

Player honors dead super fan

http://oldschool1053.com/3079715/nfl-player-rey-maualuga-pays-tribute-to-gary-owens-cousin-watch/

Several stories of big name players giving back

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/brandon-marshall-other-charitable-nfl-players-055800184--nfl.html

Former player and (now) NFL exec Troy Vincent honoring veterans and their families

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/1895948

You gotta love this…

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/12/tony-romo-jon-kitna-dallas-cowboys

And here's a great example of those that DON'T make the headlines (shame on you Wolf Blitzer)

http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=218120

The State of Sports Analytics

Well, that does sound presumptuous now doesn’t it?  I mean, who am I to assume to know the current “state” of Sports Analytics?

Quick background – for the last 20 years I’ve been involved in a business discipline known as Enterprise Performance Management (EPM).  I’ve run my own practice in this field for the last 12 years (I tell everyone I made money for other people for the first 8…).  And I have done projects all over the world for a variety of companies across many industries.

Now, with that said, you can Google “Enterprise Performance Management” and you will invariably run across a reasonably authored Wikipedia article on EPM.  There are hundreds (maybe thousands) of books on the subject and if you’re interested I’d be happy to recommend some and also advise you which ones to avoid.

By the way, my particular “flavor” of EPM that I’ve developed over the years and delivered to my customers is a mixture of Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan/Norton), Six Sigma (Motorola) and TQM (General Motors).  I’m also known as a technical specialist in the area of multidimensional databases.  (that’s a fun Google query)

The world of sports analytics is evolving and its evolution is following a very similar pattern as EPM.  Sports Analytics seems to be about 10-12 years behind business analytics (decision support, business intelligence, whatever you want to call it…) but it all began in a very similar fashion – handwritten pencil and paper solutions (a.k.a. “old school”).

In the business world these were ledgers or other record keeping systems that evolved into what we know today as a spreadsheet (still the most widely used EPM tool).  Sports then evolved in to the box score and baseball charting.  I still see people charting baseball games from time to time, but over time the teams themselves moved on mostly to spreadsheets and databases.

Let’s stop here.  Why did we create these things?  It’s simple, we’re trying to represent what happened in the game without actually watching it.  Why?  Maybe someone didn’t have enough time to watch the game.  Maybe they weren’t physically capable or watching the game or they want to analyze what happened in multiple games.  Either way, a sheet or paper (or multiple sheets of paper) were now able to somewhat represent what occurred on the field of play.  The same reason necessitated these breakthroughs in the business world.

Sports then went to the first stage of what we now refer to as “statistics”.  We began to see things like batting averages, on base percentages and eventually we put stats like that “in a blender” and Moneyball was born (Gen 2).  Mr. Beane after all was just taking statistics and blending them together in such a way to value players differently than had been done before.  On the business side, the same thing occurred when companies began analyzing earnings per share or return on invested income or revenue to debt ratios.  Take a collection of data points that you had been “measuring” combine them together and create indexes/ratios that somehow represent the value of something.

A few years ago I did my first work with retailers that were using RFID chips to follow supply chain events, understand inventory and (in some cases) automatically replenish when certain levels were reached.  Cool stuff.  No longer did management need to manually place “orders” and constantly keep inventory, you always knew what was there and could automatically calculate what you needed.  In the same way, we now have sports organizations that are experimenting with RFID chips, GPS locators, even microwave systems that map where bodies, equipment, referees, etc are on the field 100 times a second!  Wow.  Again, cool stuff, but that nagging “So What?” question rears its head… (we’ll save that discussion for another day).

So now the sports world has entered in to what I call the “circles and triangles” phase.  Business went there for a while too (and abandoned it fairly quickly).  You take the enormous amount of data (not information) produced by the above systems and then graphically represent (most often by circles and triangles, hence the name) where everyone is on the field.  You can see speed, acceleration, x/y body position, really neat stuff.  My only question is (not “So What?” I know you guys are tired of that one already) if you’re sitting there for 90 minutes (or whatever) watching circles and triangles, why don’t you just watch the actual game itself!?!?  By watching film you can see where the person was looking, what their body position was, where their hands where, etc, etc, etc  BUT NOOOO…  millions of dollars are being spent right now to simplify that down to circles and triangles…  You can tell how I feel about that.

Now, there are other pieces of information, like telemetry that can be gathered by these system…

Speed of a player?  That’s great.  Anyone who solely bases decisions on speed alone needs to head to Jamaica, there’s a guy down there, last name is “Bolt” I believe that you’ve got to sign right now.  Basing player decisions on how far (distance) a player can run?  There’s some guys from Kenya (Wilson Kipsang for example) that can flat out run forever.  Last I checked he was not under contract by any football (soccer) organization, easy negotiations!  Even mixing some of those data points together still (IMO) doesn’t give you ANY indication of how well someone is playing the game.

Now, I’m not all negative on these types of systems.  I can see their use as far as training is concerned and also in-game analysis of fatigue.  But from a quality of play, I really don’t see much use to these (very expensive) systems.

A piece of advice.  In the business world I’ve always advised my clients to “not buy the demo”.  There’s a lot of flash and some really cool technology out there, but ask yourself what does this do to improve my performance?  Here’s where that “So What?” question comes in handy.  Yeah, the demoes are pretty, but in day-to-day work in my organization is any of this really going to make me better somehow?

Another piece of advice.  Never, ever invest in something unless there is a direct, provable way to exemplify how it is going to improve your organization’s performance.  Now THAT is something that has come to prominence in the business world the last few years, I hope the sports world also realizes this concept soon.

“Old School”

“Only a fool trips over what’s behind them” – Albert Einstein

Blogging is great.  As I sat down to write this with an idea in mind I went through several ways of starting this off.  First of all, I’ll try to make this short.

The above quote is really more about not making the same mistakes twice and not dwelling on the mistakes you have made.  I couldn’t agree more.

On the other hand though, we shouldn’t “throw out the baby with the bath water” (I’m probably dating myself with that reference).

What do I mean by this?

Last week I had the opportunity of sitting in the same room with an “old school” football coach that I greatly admire.  I’ve followed his career since I was a kid really (sorry coach, another age reference).

The only “bad” part of the meeting was that I walked away with the impression that this coach was intimidated to some degree with the technology around the ideas I was presenting.  I tried my darnest to get across to coach that what Real Sports Analytics is all about really is just a natural progression of old school thought.

We believe in film study.  We believe in observable metrics.  We believe in coaches just like him watching film and evaluating how well the game is being played (film don’t lie).  We embrace the concept of the “qualified observer”.  And we most certainly want to tap into the incredible knowledge possessed by some of these “old school” coaches.

The technology enables us to do things with this collected information and present it to coaches, players, administrators in an easy to understand manner.  Yeah, that’s great.  But the old adage of “garbage in, garbage out” applies here as well.  We need to be collecting and analyzing good information to optimize what we deliver with Real Sports Analytics.

If that’s not “old school” I don’t know what is.

My next blog post (already working on) will be focused on the current state of sports analytics and how closely its evolution has mirrored the evolution of business intelligence in the business world.

Blind Squirrel Finds Nut

Every year the 1972 Dolphins, or at least a good many of them, get together to celebrate when the last undefeated NFL team finally loses a game.  Their “perfect season” record is safe for another year.

In my opinion the 2008 Detroit Lions should also have some sort of get-together every year.  See, they were the last NFL team to have a WINLESS season.  Maybe instead of Champaign and steaks they can enjoy a diet coke and some beanie weenies.

If this fictional celebration would take place one of 2008 Lion team members would be running to the nearest Publix for supplies after Monday night’s game.  Lo and behold, the Jaguars and Buccaneers both finally won a game during week 10.

Here’s some quick thoughts on both…

Jacksonville’s QB Chad Henne will probably never make it to a Pro Bowl, but he put together another solid performance on Sunday.  With the exception of his complete brain meltdown and 2nd quarter interception he played to a solid PER of 6.875.  He also was the victim of 3 pathetic sacks (he will also never be known as a running QB) with only a 6.57 score for his throw accuracy.  Give credit to their running game and receivers on offense, solid running and open receivers make it easy for a QB even if he’s not having his best day.

The “real” winners of the game were the Jacksonville front 4 on defense.  They were constantly in the Titan’s backfield and helped to produce 3 1st half turnovers.  The Jake Locker injury really didn’t have any significant effect.

Now, on to the Bucs – have they finally found a QUARTERBACK?

Mike Glennon becomes only the 6th rookie quarterback to win a Monday night football.  For this to be the Bucs first win is even more impressive – lots of pressure when you’re winless in week 10 of the season.  Glennon’s PER was a solid 6.865 which is pretty darned good given the pressures of a nationally televised game.  His stats were highlighted by a 7.2 score during the game for “Run/Throw Decision”.  Aside from his one interception he made solid decisions throughout the game and took care of the ball.

The play of the Bucs defensive line vs. Dolphins offensive line could only be described as a bloodbath and was the real story in the game.  On the other side the Bucs offensive line was dominate (finally!), once again, easy for a QB to have a good day when you can establish a solid running game and have plenty of time to throw the ball.

Both of these were very interesting games.  Is this a signal for continued success?  Probably not.  Watching these guys sign free agents and draft players is like watching a monkey throw darts.  Their wayward approach to analytics has been mentioned here before, so sorry Bucs and Jags fans, I wouldn’t hope for much during the rest of the season except for a high draft pick.  (actually I wouldn’t put too much hope behind those either)