At least if you live in Indianapolis that is.
Today marks the opening of the 2012 NFL combine and it also represents the day that I typically publish my annual rant on the “circus” also known as the NFL combine.
Gosh, where to start…
Let’s begin “at the beginning”. Those wonderfully straight lines are drawn for the 40 yard dash. The pickets are up for the vertical leap. The cones are laid on the field for the shuffle. And the pens and pencils are all prepared for the Wonderlic test.
With the exception of that last point if you didn’t know any better you would think that a track meet was about to take place in Indianapolis.
Let’s start with those wonderfully straight 40 yard dashes. First of all, these guys will NEVER, EVER run 40 yards in a straight line wearing nothing but shorts, a t-shirt and running shoes. They will always be pursued by others trying to bring them down and (hopefully) NOT running in a straight line. They will always be wearing at least 15 lbs of gear including a helmet. And why, oh why is this only a 40 yard dash? Last time I checked the football field was 100 yards from goal line to goal line. Why not let them run 100, 80, 60 and then 40 and time them? After all these guys are world class athletes right? They will sometimes have the opportunities to run THOSE, more appropriate distances.
Now, the vertical jump. Very, very rarely will a player who tests out on this be able to jump freely (again without wearing any equipment) for a goal. My only recollection of a player doing any sort of jump like this is the Saint’s Jimmy Graham! Almost always there will be two, three or maybe even four guys going up for a ball at the same time. Put some pads and a helmet on these guys and then have a couple of cornerback prospects attempt to grab the “goal” at the same time and then you might have something more realistic.
My favorite is the bench press. I saw a video the other day where someone was trying to justify the bench press as a good measure of “endurance”. Really? How many times have you seen a guy pump out 25 reps in the middle of the field at the end of the 4th quarter to prove his endurance? It’s similar in motion to a push up, maybe this is in case they do something on the field really, really dumb and their (ex-military) coach orders them to “drop and give me 50!”. Ok, that I can buy, sort of….
And last, but not least we have the cones. Yes boys and girls even though these guys have spent the last 3 or 4 years running away and between 6ft 250lb guys the ultimate test of their AGILITY will be to run between 12 inch stationary cones. Heck, if you only had to take on 12 inch cones I might’ve had a shot at the NFL! In a multi-billion dollar industry this is the best you can come up with to attempt to measure one of the most important facets of the game? Really? C’mon man. (the link is one of my favorites from last season by the way)
So what are we really trying to accomplish here? I mean, how did this get so convoluted after all? If you answer “the media” I think that’s partially the answer. Fans are SO HUNGRY for anything in the off-season even remotely related to football, they are going to watch the combine coverage – no doubt.
Another point to ponder is do NFL franchises really look at the NFL combine to make any sort of decisions? Yeah, they send guys there (junket?) and they carry clip boards and sit in the stands and LOOK like they’re paying attention. But, how much do they really put on this?
But, back to the first question – what are we trying to really MEASURE within this circus? I think we’re trying to evaluate (predict?) how well a player is going to perform in the NFL. (In actuality I think we’re measuring how well these guys would do in a track meet.)
So how do you measure how well someone performs on a football field? Well, I think you would watch them during a game, on a football field. (At least the combine IS taking place on a football field, mostly…) Then, when watching them on the football field, how would you measure them?
Well dear reader, like anyone who’s ever been to Disney will know – when the ride ends, you end up in the gift shop.
Evaluating REAL performance in REAL situations with REAL players in REAL games is what REAL SPORTS ANALYTICS is all about.
Enjoy the entertainment this week coming from Indianapolis!
