So, do you believe in coincidence?

I’ll make this entry short, but I definitely wanted to comment on the great win by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA finals.  You might remember my post from a few months ago (see “Not So Dream Teams”) and I was certainly surprised by just how far the Miami Heat progressed into the playoffs.  It was my opinion there were several better teams than the Heat, but it always seemed that when the team was on the ropes Lebron figured out a way (and a big way on more than once occasion) to pull his team through.  Unfortunately his performance in the finals was less than stellar – something that I at least partially attribute to a very effective defensive strategy on the part of the Mavericks.

Mark Cuban, congratulations.  As a long-time supporter of sports analytics and the MIT conference I cannot be happier for you and your organization.  Well done sir, well done.

Now, on to the topic at hand.  Do you believe in coincidence?  I mean, I do to some degree.  For example, if I run into an old high school chum in the Atlanta airport I consider that a coincidence.  My friend and I certainly did not “work” or expend any effort for that meeting to take place, so yes, that instance is a nice coincidence.  I did go to high school and college in the state of Georgia though, so the chances of that happening are probably better than in say Frankfurt’s airport, but nonetheless because of the millions of people that traverse that airport every year I still consider that to be nothing but a random coincidence.

There are two teams in American sports that (based on my experience) that are far and away much more advanced in their use of analytics in their day-to-day decision making.  The first, The New England Patriots.  Although secretive, I have been able to ask a few people (sometimes over certain “adult” beverages) and they have let it slip that Coach Belichick and co. are big-time users of on the field analytics.  They also recently picked up a trick from some NBA teams and are studying referee analytics (the odds involved in how certain referee “teams” call games).  I don’t have to comment on their success over the last 10 years, the word “dynasty” is used enough when describing them so I don’t need to validate my point here.

Now for the coincidence.  It’s also no secret that the NBA is far ahead of the NFL and most other American sports (with the possible exception of baseball) in how they use analytics for on-court performance.  It’s also no secret that Mr. Cuban is a big fan of sports analytics.  Does the Dallas Mavericks have a staff of people doing nothing but analytics?  I can’t prove it, but from most of what I hear the answer is “yes”.  Do any other teams have anything like that?  Possibly Houston, but no others I’ve ever heard of are even close.

So is the success of the Dallas Mavericks and the New England Patriots a “coincidence”?  I think not.  Pound for pound Miami has better talent, but the Mavericks have a far superior “team”.  How did they come by putting together that “team”?  To some degree probably just as other organizations have put together teams, but I suspect (and I would love to get some sort of validation on this point) that the Mavericks have an edge when it comes to identifying talent in individual players and recognizing what talented players will form a better team when put together on the court.

No, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Mavericks, Patriots, Yankees, Manchester United, etc are successful teams because of their use of analytics.  In fact, I believe over the coming years we will see the “analytics” vs. “non analytics” teams separate themselves from each other.  Much like the NJ Jets can only make it so far on “gut instinct”; the Miami Heat can only get so far on pure talent alone.  The coaches that refuse to use a computer and go by those “gut” instincts honed in the 60s and 70s?  Dinosaurs – soon to be extinct.