I cannot remember the exact circumstance, but after a very, very trying day I did turn to the otherwise useless box in my room for an evening of "brainless" entertainment. And what did I find? The HBO's series "Hard Knocks".
For those of you who have never seen the show, the premise is a (invisible) camera crew that follows and films the New York Jets through training camp and their pre-season schedule. From a "tabloid" TV perspective it's great entertainment. We watch as men who are dedicated to the game of professional football do everything possible to make an NFL squad. We watch the trials and tribulations of grown men driving Masarati's with state of the art GPS systems that still lack the ability to be on time to practice and team events (sorry Jason, had to take the shot). The impact their dedication and success (or failure) has on their psyches and on their friends/family makes for a compelling story. On the other hand, you also get a unique perspective on the "proven" players, what they do during training camp (including hazing rookies) and the drama involved in re-signing a top cornerback to a new contract (Darrelle Revis).
(Side note, I find the "Revis island" commercial very entertaining.)
The connection this show provides to Real Sports Analytics is actually something that I've been talking about here for quite some time. Identifying and judging (grading) talent on "Hard Knocks" is done by guys who have been coaching and been involved with the game of football for more years than I've been alive. Rex Ryan probably has more football knowledge in his left pinky finger than I have in my entire body. But you know what? Sometimes I think all of that knowledge gets in the way of good decisions...
One of the most important, critical benefits that I bring to my clients in my consulting practice is my view from "outside the box". Call it a third-person perspective or "30,000 foot" view, whatever - basically when anyone, including businessmen, coaches, scientist, etc look at a problem for too long they get a form of "blinders" on their subject matter. I'm sure this has happened to you.
At the end of most training sessions during the Jets training camp the coaches would sit together (in a somewhat spartan environment) to discuss the days events and provide roman-emperor-like "thumbs up" or "thumbs down" on certain players. There are a few things that I find interesting about this...
First of all, no one brings up grading. Not once do I hear a coach say "Player X graded out at 90% in the practice session, maybe we should try him with the first team tomorrow". The feedback from the coaches almost entirely consists of "I like this guy because..." or "I don't like this guy because...". The performance measurement that takes place during player evaluation consists of the guy either doing a "good job" or a "bad job". At one point a player is considered a spot on the roster because he's a "hitter" (i.e. he made a great hit in a kickoff coverage situation in the previous pre-season game). I mean, it's incredible to think that those "multi-million dollar" decisions are being made by a bunch of guys sitting around in a locker room and (virtually) putting a wet finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.
Secondly, we really are talking about multi-million dollar decisions. I'm not joking, the total salary for the Jets for the 2010 season is reported to be $116,910,097. These guys are sitting around in a concrete block room on what look to be folding chairs around what looks to be a folding table discussing $100 million freaking dollars!!!
Third, most of the decisions really seem to be about whether a certain position coach "likes" the player being discussed. I mean, I always suspected that a portion of the decision on whether or not to sign a guy to the squad was based on "gut instinct", "feel", "intangibles", etc - what I didn't realize was that it make up close to 100 % of the decision making process. I will give them credit, sometimes they look at film so at least 20th century technology is involved. But analyzing a player by the different skill sets they are looking for and putting something MEASURABLE around that? Not once.
That last one really floors me. This is a BIG business and it's obvious to me you can tell the teams that really care about player performance measurement and those that don't. Coach Ryan, I gave you props a moment ago regarding your knowledge on the game of football, but it's silly to think about doing this same type of player evaluation/selection over and over again each year and expecting different results (a common definition for insanity).
What I also find interesting (count this as #4 above) is that the Jets ownership thinks they can really "buy" themselves into contention this year. If you watch the show, coach Ryan talks a lot about putting together a "superbowl" team and how all of the "pieces are in place". Well, I'll only make one observation on that... Ask Dan Snyder down in Washington how that worked out for him the last few years. Last I checked the Miami Dolphins spend much more on their team salary - what's their record the last few years?
My 3rd person perspective on this? Individual players are not enough - you've got to find, evaluate and field a good TEAM. You've got to put all of the necessary components in place to make your team successful and you can't do that without measuring what you NEED. Blindly buying the "most expensive" guy out there isn't necessarily the right thing to do if he doesn't grade out well with what your TEAM is trying to do. Spending $46 million on a guy for four years of service doesn't help if he's out with a hamstring injury (get well soon Mr. Revis). Might it have been better to have found THREE guys at say $14 million a piece that work more cohesively as a UNIT?
My advice to the audience? Watch closely, there are certain teams that are really starting to get this concept and you can tell who they are. Ironically, in all of my discussions with professional sports teams I've only received ONE distinct "NO" (as in don't call back, we're not interested, don't contact us again). Yep, folks in Cleveland, you're in for another long, long season.
Hindsight is 20/20. Having a unique, third person perspective on your day-to-day evaluation processes can be priceless (hint: there's a team up in Boston that does just this).
It's called Real Sports Analytics.
