A couple of changes

Well, after much encouragement from some of my co-workers and friends I have signed up for Twitter.  If you enjoy being bored and hopefully (from time to time) entertained 140 words at at time feel free to start following me at http://twitter.com/#RSA_Bryan.  I am planning on attending the MIT conference again next spring and will be “tweeting” from there.  Last year’s conference featured attendees tweets on the big screen in between sessions and provided some nice entertainment on the breaks.

There is a lot to talk about in football.  Some early guys who were grading out very well (Josh Freeman for example) are fading.  I’m not sure where to begin on grading Tebow - we may need to develop special grading metrics just for him (maybe “Wildcat” or “TE playing QB”?).  And of course, the old reliables (Brady, Rogers, Manning2) are confidently making their way through their respective schedules en route to leading their teams to another playoff appearance.  Brady’s game yesterday against the Eagles was one of the most dominating performance by a QB that I’ve seen in a long time.  It reminded me of watching Montana during his prime in that awesome Bill Walsh offense.

Unfortunately, I can’t provide much as far as insight for the later part of the season except for a big “I TOLD YOU SO”.  The Patriots juggernaut, sans a few defensive hiccups, is rolling along again and most of their problems there can be traced back to the injury bug (did you see they had a wide receiver playing defense yesterday???).  The last team to handily defeat the Patriots (Green Bay) is rolling as well.  Everything that I just said above about Tom Brady can also be said about Aaron Rodgers.  They both are just playing great with Green Bay’s defense getting the edge on overall team ratings.

In my last post I revealed that Real Sports Analytics “LIVE” is now available and a few of you have signed up and provided some excellent scores.  I was taking a look at the model this morning and I hate to ask, but I need more!  We really only have a handful of players scored so nothing can really be published on overall team strengths at this point (except for the obvious ones mentioned above).  Please sign up, even if you can only provide 10-20 observations for the games you are watching it really does help.  I can take those 10-20 and mix them in with others and we get some really good information.  I will be publishing those results to my members in the very near future.

In the meantime, I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and (as Mark Cuban tweeted) that you recover quickly from your food coma (me included).

And now the time has come to get serious

Recently I was speaking to a colleague in the analytics business. He had just finished reading “Moneyball” and was questioning me about Real Sports Analytics. During the conversation he referred to me as the “Billy Bean” of professional football. First of all, that’s quite an honor. To be compared with anyone with that much intelligence and perseverance is something I value tremendously. Secondly, I’m hoping that the underlying statement there isn’t about fighting an uphill battle or how desperate the situation may look sometimes. I’ve always been a believer in “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” so maybe that 2^nd part isn’t such a bad thing after all. I can only hope to have ½ the success that Billy has had pursuing his goals.

So, with that tidbit out of the way, you’re probably wondering about the title of this blog post. Well, this idea is something that I’ve been tossing around for a while and I’ve finally gotten around to doing it.

Today I am announcing the availability of the Real Sports Analytics “LIVE” web site. The LIVE web site allows you, the reader and sports aficionado, to actively participate in scoring and seeing the LIVE results of the Real Sports Analytics solution in action. Here’s how it works…

http://www.realsportsanalytics.com/live/login.php

Click on the link above or the one provided below and sign up. The sign up process is short and sweet and basically gives me just a little bit of information about you. Please use the text entry box to tell me a little about yourself and your experience with sports. In return, I promise not to spam you or to share your information with anyone else. I will also send you the one page instructions and the Real Sports Analytics scoring sheets that you will use while watching football over the weekend (these are also available anytime in the “downloads” section of the web site). I’d like you to score the entire game, but I’ll be happy with 20-30 observations per game. Pick one or two players (it’s easiest to pick one on offense and one on defense for example), look at the skills/actions and rate their performance on a scale of 1-10. 1 being a complete “bone-head” play that gave the other team a great advantage to win the game, a 10 being a fantastic play that directly impacted (for the positive) their own team. Scores of 3 through 8 are medium type of plays that should’ve been made anyway and you’re really grading on how well they did them. Again, the lower the score the worse the performance, the higher the score, the better the performance.

E-mail these scoring sheets (Excel documents) to me and I will run them through the current Real Sports Analytics model. As I’ve mentioned before in a previous post, the more data the multi-dimensional model is fed, the smarter it can become. I’m thinking that by the 3^rd or 4^th game of the season we will definitely start to see some real trends emerge that can assist YOU in your fantasy (or other) endeavors and I will also start tuning the metrics and their associated weights to better reflect the actual game results.

I will publish the results on the LIVE web site each Wednesday and will send out a mass e-mail letting you know the results are available. (I’ll probably only do this for the first few weeks, remember, I promised NOT to spam you.)

Now, the two most important things:

1) The first 20 people who sign up and remain active scorers will always have full access to my web site, for free, for-ever.

2) The top scorer each week (that means you) will receive a $100 VISA gift card. The top scorer status is completely arbitrary and up to me – I’m looking for good scores, did you really watch the game and how much your scores match or don’t match with other submitted scores. As an example if most of my scorers score out Tom Brady at around an 8 and you’re results point to a 2, I’m probably going to question if you were watching the right game/player.

So please sign up and tell your friends! It’s time for some football!

Who's right?

If you’re anything like me you’ve been watching very carefully the NFL situation.  I’m not the world’s biggest NFL fan (prefer NCAA football really), but I do watch the games for the most part and keep track of what’s going on in the league (for obvious reasons).  I’m not going to go into a lot of detail regarding the current situation, but suffice it to say that it all revolves around money.  I will also make a point here that this is certainly not a “who’s right, who’s wrong” type of situation.  I can actually understand the issues from both sides.

The players want more money.  We always hear about the “top” earners, you know the quarterbacks with the 40 million dollar contracts, the guys that are “holding out” of camp because they want a longer contract with 10 million more guaranteed.  But I feel at the heart of the labor issues are the guys making minimum wage or that seem to roam from one team to the next looking for a roster spot.  Now, financially I’m still not feeling sorry for these guys, last time I checked the league minimum salary was well over $300,000 a year.  But, on the other hand, these are the guys that still have to attend camp, go to every practice, may or may not play special teams and still basically sacrifice their bodies to play the game they love (for a living).  These guys don’t get the 10 million dollar signing bonuses and will probably never see a paycheck over a million bucks, BUT their bodies still are making the payments in sweat/blood equity.  What happens to these guys long term if they never make the big bucks?  What happens if they develop serious physical conditions because of the toll their profession places on their bodies?  And yes, unfortunately (this does happen), what happens when these guys “live large” spend all of their money and end up penniless at the end of their careers?

(Just for the record, I don’t entirely feel sorry for this last set of players, yet some of them are only in their 20s and I know I certainly didn’t have the greatest financial planning skills at that age.)

Now, with that said, I would like to see the “particulars” of what these guys are currently negotiating.  Is it really going to help the 3^rd stringer who retires after ten years in the league with a variety of health problems?  Should rookies be signing $40 million dollar contracts when they haven’t played a professional football down yet?  Or, the better question…

As the NFL has grown in popularity over the last 20 or 30 years the owners have taken a larger and larger share of the profits.  You’ve got to understand that these profits not only come from the teams themselves and the sponsorship arrangements they have in place, but it’s also the “big” share of what the NFL gets from TV, advertising, the super bowl and playoff rights, etc.  The owners then are really at fault with two issues in my opinion.  One, they’ve been hesitant for the league minimum wage to raise, but at the same time they’ve been signing unproven players to exorbitant contracts for marketing purposes.  Two, as the revenue has increased over all of the teams these owners have been more likely to pad their own wallets (ex.  the Glazer family in Tampa) instead of giving back to the fans, offering better fan experiences, investing in the team’s infrastructure and facilities and/or offering more to their employees (mainly the players).

So, where am I going with this?  Sorry, for those that read this blog you probably as yourselves this quite a bit…

In my opinion, the REAL heart of the matter is a measure of value.  How much value does a player or a set of players bring to an organization?  I think at the end of each year, much like most major corporations, each team (and probably the league as well) should re-evaluate their performance and the associated compensation to their employees.  I don’t just mean the players by the way.  Should the GM collect a 5 million dollar bonus if the team stank up the field and maybe only stumbled their way to 2 or 3 wins?  Heck no.  Should a player get a million dollar bonus if he injures himself doing something bone-headed like celebrating a touch down?  Absolutely not.  What about the 3^rd string guy who comes in off the bench in a dire game situation and helps the team to a victory and a playoff spot?  There’s a thing in corporate America called a “spot bonus” and that should probably come into play in that situation.

I also think that if the owners make bone-headed decisions and drive the team in the ground they shouldn’t be allowed to bleed them dry and walk away.

So, in an ideal world the owners, staff and players would come together at the end of the year, perform a “post mortem” on the year and establish splits on who gets what (or nothing if the team lost money).  Much like a private partnership, law firm, etc.  These do exist in corporate America and they do work.  (and they typically contain some pretty large egos I might add).

Now the question of “value” comes into play.  How do you establish the value a particular person or set of people brings to the organization?  In corporate America this is typically performed in the planning stage at the beginning of a fiscal year.  Top companies set goals and then monitor the progression towards these goals as the year goes along.  At the end of the year sales people are graded (and compensated) based on their achievement of goals.  Boards of directors establish goals for corporate leadership and then compensate and/or make management changes based on these.  Companies that participate in heavy-duty quality measurement such as six sigma or balanced scorecard do this all the way down to the individual employee level.

If all of these other large revenue corporation do this, why doesn’t the NFL, NBA, etc do this?  Do they think it’s not possible or maybe too difficult?

Well ,this is my point.  Up to now there has not been a way to effectively measure the real value of personnel in a professional sports organization.  To my knowledge it just hasn’t been done.

I always talk about Real Sports Analytics and I think most of the people who read this blog think of it as a technology and it is to some degree.  But the technology doesn’t work without the acceptance of the philosophy and approach that this entails.  Real Sports Analytics is a great piece of software, don’t get me wrong it is.  It’s based on a technology that was voted one of the 10 best in the information age.  BUT, all of this software goes to waste unless there is “buy in” from the company leadership (yes dear reader, these teams really are “companies”) and a commitment to following through on the goals and metrics that are defined.

By the way, one of the key elements of the technology is its flexibility.  Are your goals and metrics going to be exactly the same as they were at the end of the year?  No way.  Like any other major corporation the technology that wraps around this approach must be flexible in order to meet the changing demands of the business.

Now, you might say that an NFL team’s business is to win games and you’d be absolutely correct.  But in those terms what amounts to a “changing condition” that might justify some adjustments?  Well injury for one.  Coaching and/or management changes for another.  League restructuring would also necessitate some adjustments.

My point here is that these organizations and all or the labor/money issues that go along with it are exactly running parallel to issues that have faced Fortune 500 companies for decades.

C’mon man, isn’t it time the NFL and NBA “grow up” and embrace management philosophies and technologies that corporate America has been using for almost two decades?

If some of these approaches were adopted I think this labor issue might be a whole heckuva lot clearer and the parties involved could come to the table with cold, hard facts instead of inflated egos.  Third party arbitration and an avoidance of work stoppage would also be more possible if this were the case.

So, do you believe in coincidence?

I’ll make this entry short, but I definitely wanted to comment on the great win by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA finals.  You might remember my post from a few months ago (see “Not So Dream Teams”) and I was certainly surprised by just how far the Miami Heat progressed into the playoffs.  It was my opinion there were several better teams than the Heat, but it always seemed that when the team was on the ropes Lebron figured out a way (and a big way on more than once occasion) to pull his team through.  Unfortunately his performance in the finals was less than stellar – something that I at least partially attribute to a very effective defensive strategy on the part of the Mavericks.

Mark Cuban, congratulations.  As a long-time supporter of sports analytics and the MIT conference I cannot be happier for you and your organization.  Well done sir, well done.

Now, on to the topic at hand.  Do you believe in coincidence?  I mean, I do to some degree.  For example, if I run into an old high school chum in the Atlanta airport I consider that a coincidence.  My friend and I certainly did not “work” or expend any effort for that meeting to take place, so yes, that instance is a nice coincidence.  I did go to high school and college in the state of Georgia though, so the chances of that happening are probably better than in say Frankfurt’s airport, but nonetheless because of the millions of people that traverse that airport every year I still consider that to be nothing but a random coincidence.

There are two teams in American sports that (based on my experience) that are far and away much more advanced in their use of analytics in their day-to-day decision making.  The first, The New England Patriots.  Although secretive, I have been able to ask a few people (sometimes over certain “adult” beverages) and they have let it slip that Coach Belichick and co. are big-time users of on the field analytics.  They also recently picked up a trick from some NBA teams and are studying referee analytics (the odds involved in how certain referee “teams” call games).  I don’t have to comment on their success over the last 10 years, the word “dynasty” is used enough when describing them so I don’t need to validate my point here.

Now for the coincidence.  It’s also no secret that the NBA is far ahead of the NFL and most other American sports (with the possible exception of baseball) in how they use analytics for on-court performance.  It’s also no secret that Mr. Cuban is a big fan of sports analytics.  Does the Dallas Mavericks have a staff of people doing nothing but analytics?  I can’t prove it, but from most of what I hear the answer is “yes”.  Do any other teams have anything like that?  Possibly Houston, but no others I’ve ever heard of are even close.

So is the success of the Dallas Mavericks and the New England Patriots a “coincidence”?  I think not.  Pound for pound Miami has better talent, but the Mavericks have a far superior “team”.  How did they come by putting together that “team”?  To some degree probably just as other organizations have put together teams, but I suspect (and I would love to get some sort of validation on this point) that the Mavericks have an edge when it comes to identifying talent in individual players and recognizing what talented players will form a better team when put together on the court.

No, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Mavericks, Patriots, Yankees, Manchester United, etc are successful teams because of their use of analytics.  In fact, I believe over the coming years we will see the “analytics” vs. “non analytics” teams separate themselves from each other.  Much like the NJ Jets can only make it so far on “gut instinct”; the Miami Heat can only get so far on pure talent alone.  The coaches that refuse to use a computer and go by those “gut” instincts honed in the 60s and 70s?  Dinosaurs – soon to be extinct.

What a HUGE mistake!

Take it from someone who's graded Julio Jones’ ON THE FIELD performance- the move the Falcons made during the first round of the draft is a H-U-G-E mistake.

First of all, let’s start with some known facts. During the first round of the draft the Atlanta Falcons traded with the Cleveland Browns up to the #6 spot for the right to draft wide receiver Julio Jones. For this draft “up” the Falcons gave up FIVE draft picks (1^st round spot #27, 2^nd round spot #59, 4^th round spot #124, AND their first and fourth round picks NEXT year). Wow, talk about gambling away the future.

A few posts ago you might have noticed my comments on “Take Your Eye Off the ball” by Pat Kirwan. One of the most informative things Mr. Kirwin includes in his book is a chart showing the relative value of each pick in the first seven rounds of the draft. So, let’s start with a basic analysis on how this trade looks from the proverbial 50,000 foot view.

Julio Jones pick #6 round 1 = 1,600

What they gave up in this year’s draft

#27 = 680

#59 = 310

#124 = 48

What they gave up in next year’s draft given a better than average season and a playoff berth.

#29 = 640

#125 = 47

On the surface then, they traded to get a 1600 value and traded away 1725 (given a better than average 2011 season).

So, why make this move? Well, let’s also briefly discuss the “who?” question. The person who ultimately approves this type of trade for the Falcons is the General Manager Thomas Dimitroff. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Mr. Dimitroff, he came from the Patriots organization after leading their scouting group. In his first year as GM (2008) the Falcons got into the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. (Which they quickly exited in the first round with a loss to the the Arizona Cardinals) In 2008 and 2010 he was named the NFL Executive of the Year by the Sporting News.

Net, net, this guy is not a dummy. He has consistently shown intelligence and shrewdness in building the Atlanta Falcons into what most people consider a team on the verge of making the “next step” even though they still have not won a playoff game in his three years with the organization.

So, why make such an aggressive move now? Can Arthur Blank and the other Falcons management maybe be looking for a “bold move” on Dimitroff’s part? You might remember Mr. Blank is one of the founders of Home Depot – certainly a man that is NOT used to “sitting on his laurels” for too long. Could he have inadvertently forced his GM into doing something rash? Maybe Dimitroff is simply guilty of overconfidence in his abilities. (Certainly wouldn’t have been the first time that’s happened in professional sports)

To be honest, I really don’t know the answer. I imagine that only the inner circle at Falcons HQ can understand this decision and the justification for it.

What I do know (through “Real” analysis) and what I feel in my heart is that this is a huge mistake. (And I’ve got the models to prove it.) Julio is at best the 7^th or 8^th best receiver in the draft. In fact, as an interesting theoretical, I would even stretch that to say if not for the incredible supporting cast he had at the University of Alabama he might not have been a first day draft pick at all.

Think about it. A Heisman trophy winning running back, a fantastic offensive line and solid QB for most of his time there. Not to mention one of the strongest defenses in the country giving said offense favorable field position for most of their opponents. Being the best receiver on that team (which I can also show he was not) is kind of like being the “best man” at an all girls school.

Did Julio ever have a “big” game against any of the top teams in the SEC? Tell you what, show me when he had outstanding game statistics (yes, dear reader I’m asking for “tired” statistics that you know I hate) against a .500 team? The vast majority of his inflated receiving catches and yards came against 2^nd tier opponents. Where was he in the 2^nd half of the game with Auburn that the Tide had all but won? (I’ll have to admit he did have a pretty good 1^st half)

Does this guy have athletic ability? You bet. But so do a thousand guys out there every year trying to make a NFL roster. Great hands? Absolutely not. In fact, if you watch enough of his films one of his worst flaws is his habit of catching the ball with his body. He simply lets the ball get too close to his body before extending his hands for the catch. All sorts of bad things can happen when a receiver does this, just ask any high school receiving coach. His downfield blocking is mediocre at best. In fact (again film doesn’t lie) if you look closely he’s really not doing any “firm” blocking at all. This is even more true last year during what he knew to be his last year at Alabama. It was almost if the guy was playing to NOT get hurt (even though he has shown he’s prone to injury). He’s a showboat and a selfish player and I’m sorry, combine that with his questionable fundamentals and you’ve produced a really low value to a “team” in the National Football League.

Now, I know Mr. Dimitroff has his own grading system that he developed (and had much success with) during his time with the Patriots. I also know that he has large whiteboards in his office that he uses for all sorts of “formulations” coming up with the value of draft and trade prospects. But, I’m starting to wonder if those are a “off”. The trade to get (IMO Hall of Fame first ballot) Tony Gonzales was pretty good, but he is an aging player and there are certainly numerous just as good (at this time in his career) players available on the market.

So, I’m starting to wonder… are the formulas not working so well anymore? Is he having trouble finding value? Or maybe his formulas don’t’ work as well for the Falcons for some reason? What if Mr. Dimitroff is adjusting his grading and weighting factors in the wrong direction? It’s certainly not from lack of “smarts”, maybe he just has the wrong data or too much of it?

Well, I’m not writing this blog for my health. Tuning these metrics and finding the “hidden gems” in the draft and trade market is what Real Sports Analytics is all about. I think a multi-million dollar mistake was made by the Falcons on draft day and it all could’ve been avoided. How? First look at what the Falcons need most. Secondly, define the metrics that make these positions the most successful on the field. Third, compare side by side, what are my needs, who is still available and how do they compare against what I’ve already defined as the successful metrics for that position in MY organization.

For one reason or another I do not think the Falcons organization is currently doing this. Or maybe they’re just not doing it optimally, why is this? Don’t know, but (and I say this with all due respect) Mr. Dimitroff you might’ve just made your first truly horrific decision as a general manager.

"The Showdown"

Earlier this year I was very condescending toward Rex Ryan and the Jets and their so called attempt to “buy into” the NFL playoffs. Well, it looks like Coach Ryan proved me wrong and I offer my congratulations. The upset at Indianapolis was completely unexpected and although Payton Manning played his worst game of the season the NY Jet played probably their best.

So now comes the most interesting matchup (at least for me) in the NFL playoffs and you could not have asked for two teams more diametrically opposed than these two. The Jets are, in my opinion, the last of the Lombardi-like coached teams. What I mean by that is that the Jets rely completely on the judgment of their coaches and the “fly by the seat of my pants” style of Coach Ryan to thrive. You might remember that in the HBO “hard knocks” series I gave great grief to their methodology for selecting players for the team. Based on the show (and yes Virginia, I know they couldn’t show everything even on a HBO series), most of the personnel decisions are made by sitting around a room while various coaches give their “thumbs up” or “thumbs down” on players.

Well, experience in that art (NFL personnel) only can take you so far. That’s a valuable lesson that the coach on the other sideline this weekend knows extremely well. The Patriots are probably doing more today with analytics than any other team in the NFL and they’ve been doing it as early as 2000 when they picked Tom Brady 199^th in the draft. Did they know something then that no one else did? I think so. The Patriots are the most consistent team in the NFL not only in making playoffs, winning playoff games, etc.. but also in the very, very important concept of “doing more with less”.

I, like many detectives on TV, do NOT believe in coincidences. Too many times over the last few years the Patriots have picked up players either through the draft or via trades that have greatly impacted their team. Players like Seymour, Welker, Brady (sorry for the double mention).. etc. Forbes magazine actually recently published NFL teams that are the most “EFFECTIVE” with their payrolls. No surprise, the Patriots were the most effective team in the league with the 3^rd lowest payroll.

Most of these players weren’t on ANYBODY’S radar yet they’ve become extremely valuable to what is arguably the best team in the NFL right now.

How did they find these players? I honestly don’t know the details, but I can tell you it probably wasn’t by using anything like what I saw the Jets use this year.

So here it is, the “showdown”. The last Lombardi-like team (probably in the league) vs. the team of the 21^st century run by an offensive genius, led by the 199^th pick in the draft and operating right now as smoothly as the finest Swiss timepiece (or maybe they are a Timex based on cost?).

Enjoy the weekend, if you haven’t read the “Kirwan” book mentioned in my previous post I will re-iterate how important it is. I gave several copies as Christmas gifts this year.

Watch how these two teams operate, watch how they are coached. I think you’ll see a startling difference in how they operate on the sidelines and certainly how they perform on the field.