Take it from someone who's graded Julio Jones’ ON THE FIELD performance- the move the Falcons made during the first round of the draft is a H-U-G-E mistake.
First of all, let’s start with some known facts. During the first round of the draft the Atlanta Falcons traded with the Cleveland Browns up to the #6 spot for the right to draft wide receiver Julio Jones. For this draft “up” the Falcons gave up FIVE draft picks (1st round spot #27, 2nd round spot #59, 4th round spot #124, AND their first and fourth round picks NEXT year). Wow, talk about gambling away the future.
A few posts ago you might have noticed my comments on “Take Your Eye Off the ball” by Pat Kirwan. One of the most informative things Mr. Kirwin includes in his book is a chart showing the relative value of each pick in the first seven rounds of the draft. So, let’s start with a basic analysis on how this trade looks from the proverbial 50,000 foot view.
Julio Jones pick #6 round 1 = 1,600
What they gave up in this year’s draft
#27 = 680
#59 = 310
#124 = 48
What they gave up in next year’s draft given a better than average season and a playoff berth.
#29 = 640
#125 = 47
On the surface then, they traded to get a 1600 value and traded away 1725 (given a better than average 2011 season).
So, why make this move? Well, let’s also briefly discuss the “who?” question. The person who ultimately approves this type of trade for the Falcons is the General Manager Thomas Dimitroff. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Mr. Dimitroff, he came from the Patriots organization after leading their scouting group. In his first year as GM (2008) the Falcons got into the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. (Which they quickly exited in the first round with a loss to the the Arizona Cardinals) In 2008 and 2010 he was named the NFL Executive of the Year by the Sporting News.
Net, net, this guy is not a dummy. He has consistently shown intelligence and shrewdness in building the Atlanta Falcons into what most people consider a team on the verge of making the “next step” even though they still have not won a playoff game in his three years with the organization.
So, why make such an aggressive move now? Can Arthur Blank and the other Falcons management maybe be looking for a “bold move” on Dimitroff’s part? You might remember Mr. Blank is one of the founders of Home Depot – certainly a man that is NOT used to “sitting on his laurels” for too long. Could he have inadvertently forced his GM into doing something rash? Maybe Dimitroff is simply guilty of overconfidence in his abilities. (Certainly wouldn’t have been the first time that’s happened in professional sports)
To be honest, I really don’t know the answer. I imagine that only the inner circle at Falcons HQ can understand this decision and the justification for it.
What I do know (through “Real” analysis) and what I feel in my heart is that this is a huge mistake. (And I’ve got the models to prove it.) Julio is at best the 7th or 8th best receiver in the draft. In fact, as an interesting theoretical, I would even stretch that to say if not for the incredible supporting cast he had at the University of Alabama he might not have been a first day draft pick at all.
Think about it. A Heisman trophy winning running back, a fantastic offensive line and solid QB for most of his time there. Not to mention one of the strongest defenses in the country giving said offense favorable field position for most of their opponents. Being the best receiver on that team (which I can also show he was not) is kind of like being the “best man” at an all girls school.
Did Julio ever have a “big” game against any of the top teams in the SEC? Tell you what, show me when he had outstanding game statistics (yes, dear reader I’m asking for “tired” statistics that you know I hate) against a .500 team? The vast majority of his inflated receiving catches and yards came against 2nd tier opponents. Where was he in the 2nd half of the game with Auburn that the Tide had all but won? (I’ll have to admit he did have a pretty good 1st half)
Does this guy have athletic ability? You bet. But so do a thousand guys out there every year trying to make a NFL roster. Great hands? Absolutely not. In fact, if you watch enough of his films one of his worst flaws is his habit of catching the ball with his body. He simply lets the ball get too close to his body before extending his hands for the catch. All sorts of bad things can happen when a receiver does this, just ask any high school receiving coach. His downfield blocking is mediocre at best. In fact (again film doesn’t lie) if you look closely he’s really not doing any “firm” blocking at all. This is even more true last year during what he knew to be his last year at Alabama. It was almost if the guy was playing to NOT get hurt (even though he has shown he’s prone to injury). He’s a showboat and a selfish player and I’m sorry, combine that with his questionable fundamentals and you’ve produced a really low value to a “team” in the National Football League.
Now, I know Mr. Dimitroff has his own grading system that he developed (and had much success with) during his time with the Patriots. I also know that he has large whiteboards in his office that he uses for all sorts of “formulations” coming up with the value of draft and trade prospects. But, I’m starting to wonder if those are a “off”. The trade to get (IMO Hall of Fame first ballot) Tony Gonzales was pretty good, but he is an aging player and there are certainly numerous just as good (at this time in his career) players available on the market.
So, I’m starting to wonder… are the formulas not working so well anymore? Is he having trouble finding value? Or maybe his formulas don’t’ work as well for the Falcons for some reason? What if Mr. Dimitroff is adjusting his grading and weighting factors in the wrong direction? It’s certainly not from lack of “smarts”, maybe he just has the wrong data or too much of it?
Well, I’m not writing this blog for my health. Tuning these metrics and finding the “hidden gems” in the draft and trade market is what Real Sports Analytics is all about. I think a multi-million dollar mistake was made by the Falcons on draft day and it all could’ve been avoided. How? First look at what the Falcons need most. Secondly, define the metrics that make these positions the most successful on the field. Third, compare side by side, what are my needs, who is still available and how do they compare against what I’ve already defined as the successful metrics for that position in MY organization.
For one reason or another I do not think the Falcons organization is currently doing this. Or maybe they’re just not doing it optimally, why is this? Don’t know, but (and I say this with all due respect) Mr. Dimitroff you might’ve just made your first truly horrific decision as a general manager.
