As you probably know this week is US Open week. Now, being from Augusta I’m more inclined to be excited about Masters week (I typically hum the tune “it’s the most wonderful time of the year” during that week much to the chagrin of those I am around) but I do recognize the US Open as typically being the “greatest test of golf”. There are some years (anyone remember the fiasco at Shinnecock?) when I think the USGA goes too far and sets up a “goofy” golf course and I certainly hope that doesn’t happen again here. San Francisco is known to have it’s share of “goofy golf” courses and typically the Lake Course at Olympic is not one of them – let’s hope the USGA gets it right this time.
I’ve also been pondering golf analytics. I mentioned some useless pieces of information in my previous post (putts per round, greens in regulation, etc) and started wondering, OK Bryan, you’re so smart, how would YOU build an analytics model for golf based on nothing but the qualitative results from a golf round.
After much thought, here’s my first go at it…
First of all I think there are three segments to the game: tee to green, around the green and putting.
Tee to green is pretty straightforward and you can in fact use a “sensor” based input to assist in this. Basically define the areas of the fairway that are “ideal” for the player to hit to in order to set up his shot to the green. Obviously these are only valid for par 4 and 5 holes. These “ideal” locations can change based on hole location (those change in a tournament every day) and they can also change according to conditions (wind, rain, etc). Once you have these, you can put some use (finally!) on data produced by a system like Shotlink by using their precise measurements to figure out where exactly the ball ended up in the fairway.
Par 5s in this situation would be a bit more difficult in that you would need to measure a players quality of shot going for the green in 2 vs. their layup position, but it could be done with a qualified observer. (i.e.. were they really going for it or did they just badly mishit their shot?)
Par 3s you would qualify the shot based on where on the green (hopefully) the player left the ball. There is such a thing in golf as a “good miss” so you would also need to observe the strategic use of “bail out” areas for particularly difficult or dangerous shots (no such thing on the 17th at Sawgrass, right?).
Coming into the green would be even easier. Based on where they are in the fairway (are they in a 8-10 position or worse?) how well did they fare? If they’re lying in a 9 or 10 position and promptly chunk it into the front right bunker, well you can imagine that’s not going to score very well.
Once near the green, meaning just off the green or in a greenside bunker or collection area it would also be straightforward to judge how well the ball is played close to the hole for a birdie or par-save opportunity. Speaking of par-save opportunities, we could also enable a “scrambling” factor on how well the player recovers from a bad shot anywhere on a given hole. In fact, in some cases you would probably get multiple observations for scrambling.
And finally, the players quality putt on the green. As I mentioned before I spent a lot of my younger days in Augusta and have been to probably 30 Masters tournaments. There are some places on that golf course that you simply do NOT want to go. Some examples:
- back bunker at number 7 with a front right pin location
- back or middle tier of the green on 9 with a front hole location (brutal false front there that rolls 30 yds back down to the fairway – the worst “walk of shame” in golf IMO).
- back bunker on 12 with the Sunday pin location
- anywhere, and I mean ANYWHERE right of the green on #4
- over the green on #14
- back bunkers on #16 with Sunday pin
Why do I mention bunkers when we’re talking about putting? Typically when you’re in the bunker you are playing your –1 par shot (different for Par 5s when you’ve gone for the green, yes I know) so the placement of this greenside bunker shot is critical. In the case of #7 at Augusta for example, you want to leave your shot “below” the hole leaving an uphill putt, but if you run it too far by the hole you may end up in one of the front bunkers (which isn’t an easy shot either) or rolling between the bunkers and back into the fairway. #7 is a particularly brutal green and you also don’t want to necessarily leave the ball “above” the hole leaving yourself with a very fast, typically hard-breaking putt for par (or worse).
There are also putts at Augusta when it’s almost impossible to aim at the hole. Everyone remembers Tiger’s shot a few years ago at #16 from just off the green, but they don’t remember Davis Love’s putt earlier in the tournament from across the green. Davis has to putt up onto the hill (90 degree angle AWAY from the hole) to catch the hill properly and make an improbable birdie. When he was lining up his putt, he had his BACK to the hole!
So what does this mean for putt scoring? Again, a qualified person needs to observe what’s going on. The fairway observations can be made with the assistance of the Shotlink system, but around the green, scrambling and putting must all be “observed”.
Think this would take a lot of manpower? Have you ever been to a golf tournament and watched the cadre of people that walk along with a typical weekend twosome? I bet you that all of those people know the game of golf and even if they’re already busy it wouldn’t be a big deal for one more person to be there. OR just station someone in the fairway and green for every hole. Every tournament has more than their share of able-bodied volunteers. Heck, I just filled out my form to volunteer for next year’s open at Pinehurst!
There’s a lot of useless information presented in golf telecasts. Just like “statistics” you can mix/blend these to make any point that you like – Johnny Miller is a master of useless statistics. The point of golf is scoring low of course and a guy who chips in from the bunker for par is scored exactly the same on the score sheet as the guy who lips out a 4 ft. birdie putt and taps in. This method tells you more of “how well” someone is playing despite the score. You can’t be lucky ALL of the time!
As always dear reader, ask why and ask is what you are being presented with really tells you what’s going on in the game – ANY GAME!
