We as Americans are fascinated by "dream teams". Why? Who knows, maybe we just like the idea (if for a short time) a dominate force overcoming all obstacles put in its path. Maybe we just like the idea of watching multiple superstars coming together and creating something "greater than the sum of their parts". Since the days of Gehrig and Ruth sports fans especially have been susceptible to this phenomena.
The latest incarnation of a "dream team" has taken its form in the shape of the Miami Heat. In case you missed it (vacation on Mars?), Miami in the off season signed Lebron James (quite possibly the greatest player of his generation), Dwayne Wade (NBA MVP) and Chris Bosh (one of the best forwards in the NBA)...
Will this work for the Miami Heat? In not so many words, yes. But, I need to qualify my "yes". Is the purpose of a professional sports team to win championships or make money? Well, there certainly have been cases where teams have not won a championship in a while, but still seem to generate high revenues (ref. Dallas Cowboys). And there are other times when champions have come from teams that don't necessarily have the highest of revenues (ref. 1997 Florida Marlins).
So what is the point (from a team's perspective) of a dream team? Well, it's quite simple actually, it's a win/win any which way you look at it. The dream team is going to sell tickets and provide enormous publicity for the team. Just look at the Miami Heat's marketing activities over the summer. Did any other NBA team stage any production anywhere near what they did after signing Lebron? If they did, did you take notice? (I didn't)
So what did Miami accomplish as a result of signing these three players and putting on such a high-profile marketing event? Well, they certainly are going to sell tickets. I don't imagine that the sales of Miami Heat t-shirts, jerseys and well, just about anything else with their logo is going to hurt sales-wise this season either. Also, did you notice the game Tuesday night? It had all of the markings of a football-style "kickoff classic". Would that game have even been televised if not for Miami's "big three"? This is MONEY IN THE BANK for the Miami Heat organization. (eat your heart out P.T. Barnum)
Now for the 2nd part of the question? Now that they have signed the "dream team" or "big three" or whatever you want to call it - will they win a championship? Well, it doesn't really matter from a money point of view, like I said before, the money is already in the bank (the organization's primary motive in my opinion). But how much real analysis did the Miami front office put into researching how well these three guys (and the other players on the team) would play as a cohesive unit? Or does it really even matter???
What I will tell you is this, with the exception of the "original" dream team in the 1992 Olympics no dream team has ever lived up to its expectations. Even the 1992 dream team played at a level "less" than the sum of their parts in my opinion, it's just that sum was so darned high and everyone else's was so low they couldn't help but to win.
So why don't great individual performers and performances correlate to championships? It's something that sports announcers and other prognosticators call "chemistry". So what is "chemistry"? My definition - the interaction between players and coaches and subsequent results. I know, I know, that's vague, but in it's simplest form I think it's true. I do emphasize though the relationships within the players though - coaches matter to some degree, but I place the weighting mostly on how the players interact with each other in the arena of play. You can absolutely hate your coach, or have a horrible relationship with the coach and still win a championship.
How do you measure "chemistry"? Gosh, lots of people have certainly tried and there is no shortage of statistics that attempt to represent the concept of chemistry. If you've read any of my previous posts you understand my complete and utter disdain for statistics. What I do in my work has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with statistics, let me be perfectly clear on that point. There was a guy yesterday who was counting how many _dribbles_ Lebron had in the game - WTF???
If you want to get serious about chemistry, let me know. Yes, I do deal with numbers (not statistics), but the methods I use to generate these numbers help to represent ACTUAL player performance and yes, "chemistry" more accurately than anyone else has ever dreamed. In the few games that I've modeled in various sports (Football, Soccer, Basketball) the overall performance of the team (and whether or not they win) can always be shown by direct causes and consequences. I can look at my numbers and without looking at the score tell you unequivocally who won or lost the game.
On the other hand, I'm not a marketing company so if you just want to pay a lot of money to make money on marketing and ticket sales - good for you, it's the American way and I certainly won't stand in your way. Remember that America is also home to the saying "you can't make money without spending money". (the Miami Heat is doing both right now)
BUT, on the other hand, if you are really, really serious about winning. Well, that usually is a completely different thing that I CAN help you with.
(By the way, I'm not above eating a little crow. Congratulations to the Browns for winning their 2nd game of the season - against the defending world champions no less!!! Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again.)
