Why Real Sports Analytics is BETTER than your current system.

I was watching a pre-season game a few nights ago and saw what was probably the best example of why Real Sports Analytics is better.

Here’s what happened – Team B kicked off to Team A.  The kickoff was a touchback so Team A took over at the 20-yard line.  After a commercial break, Team A’s quarterback called the play in the huddle and the team lined up.  Team B’s defense was obviously coming up for a blitz.  The safety was near the line of scrimmage, the outside linebackers were on the line and watching the football closely, everyone was obviously trying to time the snap.  The quarterback stopped his snap count and called an audible.  He turned to the running back to make sure he could hear, you saw several offensive lineman look toward him to catch the new play as well, the receivers acknowledged the change also.   The quarterback took the snap, took a quick three stop drop and delivered the ball perfectly to the receiver on the right side who had cut off his route to run a quick slant.  At this point the quarterback has done everything perfectly, he’s read the defense, adjusted his blocking, adjusted the WR routes, took the correct drop and delivered a perfect throw.

But, you know what they say about “best laid plans”…

Here’s what happened next.  The receiver bobbled the ball over his left shoulder, the cornerback (Team B) grabbed the football and took off for an easy score.

“Traditional” scoring systems (i.e. passer rating) would ding the QB for the interception as well as the pick six even though he did nothing wrong.  The receiver on the other hand might be charged with a “dropped ball” which is pretty misleading as well since it usually doesn’t take into account the game situation, accuracy of the pass or the result of the play.

Now, let’s look at this scenario from the Real Sports Analytics perspective.

The QB gets a good score for reading the defense, calling the correct audible, adjusting his blocking, taking the correct drop (3 instead of 5 steps) and delivering a perfectly thrown pass.

The RECEIVER gets a good score for communication with the QB and running a correct route.  He get a BAD score for not catching the ball and allowing the interception.  Depending on if he was in a position to make a play on the return, he might get a good or bad score on his tackling ability.

The CORNERBACK for Team B gets a good score for coverage, identifying and jumping the route and for catching the interception and turning it into 6 points.

What?  What was that last statement?  Why am I grading the OPPOSITION?

Well, there are really two points to be made in this post:

1)  Score how players actually perform doing the specific tasks that are necessary on the field to win.  This includes decision making ability, mechanics, vision and of course athletic ability.  Offensive coordinators and most coaches know what play is being called in the huddle.  Because they are on the field they can most likely hear an audible that’s called by the QB at the line of scrimmage.  These are known items, grades, metrics… whatever you want to call them, they are collectable and measurable and over time can pinpoint strengths and weaknesses of every player on your team.

2) Speaking of strengths and weaknesses – wouldn’t it be nice to look at past performance of your opponents to see how they are grading out?  You may discover that a certain defensive left tackle is having an incredible year, but only in the first 3 quarters – could it be a conditioning issue that the opposing coaches haven’t quiet figured out yet?  Well, if your team knows this they’ll know to run to the opposite side of the field for the first 3 quarters.  But the 4th quarter, when it comes down to crunch time, that’s when games are won or lost.  And that’s when you most need the competitive advantage and Real Sports Analytics brings to the table.

Is your team using an outdated grading system?

If you’re already using technology to score items like this are you limited to how many metrics you can track, how many players you can view, how quickly and easily you can get this data when you need it?

Have you ever even though about tracking your opponents to discover strengths and weaknesses beyond the “traditional” performance scoring systems?