Someone who gets it

I just finished Pat Kirwan’s book “Take Your Eye Off The Ball – How to Watch Football by Knowing Where to Look”.

You know, ever since I decided to start Real Sports Analytics I’ve always been on the lookout for like-minded individuals who could recognize the value of this concept. I met a few at the MIT Sports Analytics conference last March in Boston, but Mr. Kirwan’s book is especially refreshing coming from someone with vast experience both inside the NFL and as one of the most respected analysts in the business.

First of all, before I get into the “why?”, I would highly, highly recommend this read to anyone who has an interest in furthering their knowledge of the game. If you’re looking for an advantage to winning your fantasy league, impressing your friends or just being more knowledgeable about the game you’ll love this book. It is well worth the 222 pages. As a disclaimer, I am in no way, shape or form affiliated with Mr. Kirwan nor have I ever met or spoken to him.

OK, now to why this book is so relevant (without of course giving away the “secret sauce”, Mr. Kirwan and I still want you to buy and read the book)…

First of all, the book spends very little time talking about the “tired” statistics that are usually associated with the game and that I’ve talked about before on this blog. He does a fantastic job of explaining fairly advanced topics like play calling methods, blocking schemes, rush strategies and the difference between a 4-3 and 3-4 defense (this chapter alone is worth the price of admission).

Secondly, Mr. Kirwan gives tips on what to watch for and how to keep track of what’s really happening in the game. How can you tell what type of blocking scheme the offensive line is using? How can you tell when it changes (and it does)? How does a running back “read” which cut lane is open (based on helmet position – cool…)? The chess match that not only occurs between coaches, but between say the left tackle and a defensive end. (The defensive end used an outside speed rush move on the last play, is he going to go inside on this play or outside again, or is he going to use a speed/power combo move?) It reminds me a lot of a baseball hitter’s guess-work in deciding between a breaking ball or a fast ball for the next pitch.

Although I don’t necessarily agree with Mr. Kirwan’s “explosion” rating for judging defensive linemen, he at least is moving things in the right direction (take your eye off the statistics!). Very few times does he mention passing efficiency or yards after catch or hurry ups. It’s refreshing.

What is outlined in this book is the next growing trend. It’s the “tip of the iceberg” as far as sports analytics is concerned. When any sports fans “look away from the ball” and actually try to digest what is going on in any sports their experience and take-away is only that much more heightened.

Mr. Kirwan, if you are reading this I would love to talk to you about how to expand your analysis. It seems several times in the book you start heading down the Real Sports Analytics path, but you’re not sure where that might take you.

Well, I’d certainly like to buy you lunch and show you some possibilities.