Football Isn’t Hard

Like many of you I watch a lot of football.  Especially this time of year - isn't it just magical?  This year brings to us the college football "playoff system" and I'm sure the controversy left over by the BCS and its MNC (mythical national championship) will not abate.  In fact, the "Final 4" pics are sure to leave almost as much devastation in the hearts of collegiate football followers as its predecessor.

In the NFL, many of this year's story lines really could be classified as repeats of last year.  Brady is still good.  So is Manning, Rogers and Brees.  There are a lot of "so-so" QBs out there like Newton, Kaepernick (yes I did have to look up the correct spelling of that one) and Wilson as well as the always unpredictable "Romo-coaster".

But since I'm a "numbers guy" and always looking to read the tea leaves in order to find something that someone else never has, I thought it appropriate in this blog post to "rise above" the fray for a while and take more of a macro view of football.

Now, don't get me wrong.  I love the minutia and Real Sports Analytics is a fantastic way to see patterns in performance that no one else can provide.  Buried down in the bottom of our analysis though is the "raw" numbers and having seen enough of those I can provide a bird's eye view of patterns that we've discovered over the last few years.

There is a definite pattern when it comes to bad teams, good teams and great teams.  And, in the spirit of today's blog headline, football isn't really that difficult to figure out.

First of all, you need a good offensive line.  Not a great offensive line, but just one that provides good running lanes, hits their blocks and knocks the front four of the defense off the line.  As a bonus, if you can get your 5-6 guys hitting those four and then 1-2 guys getting to the next level and (at least) get in the way of a linebacker or safety, well then you've got something going on.  If your running back is consistently getting hit in the backfield then he will not get back to the line of scrimmage (much less downfield) with any regularity.

Without a good running game, your offense is inconsistent at best.  If the defensive front four is shutting down your running game then they are also (probably) getting pretty good pressure on the QB.  That leaves 7 guys on their side to cover the middle and drop back to defend a rushed QB that is probably not making the best of decisions.  That is a formula for disaster and the dream of every defensive coordinator in football.

This also leads to the dreaded "3 and out".

It's pretty obvious to most what a 3 and out means in football.  First of all, your offense had zero chance of getting into ANY kind of rhythm.  Secondly, your defense which (it seems) just got to the sideline has had ZERO opportunity to gather themselves, work with the coaches or REST.  And "WHAM" they are right back out there.  Even if they just pulled off a 3 and out on the opposition, having to jump into battle again has got to be at least a little demoralizing.

The great “ying and yang” of football in my opinion is the interactions between the offenses and defenses of the two teams on the field (paging Dr. Obvious, right?).  But I won't delve into that here, wow that could be a really long blog entry.  (and special teams and momentum shifts could be another blog unto itself)

Let me get back to my point.  In the hundreds of games and tens of thousands of downs we have watched at Real Sports Analytics the difference between winning and losing in a VAST MAJORITY of cases comes down to three simple little things.

1. Good offensive line
2. Good QB/RB combo that HANGS ONTO THE BALL (minimal fumbles/ints)
3. Good defense that can stop the run

That's it.  Pretty simple, right?

Having a great QB is a plus though, right?  But without the other two he's as useless as a bicycle to a fish.

A great RB can and will break tackles get back to the line of scrimmage, but he won't be able to do it consistently without a little help from the OL.

Oh, and even if you have those two covered, if your defense is giving up 40+ points a game?  Forget about it.

Just look at the Seahawks last year.  Wilson performed OK, heck great for a guy with less than one year's experience in the league, but still a 5 or 6 in my book.  Marshawn Lynch is a good, bruising runner, but he also had some BIG, HUGE, GAPING lanes opened for him by the OL.  (I'll rank him a 7 for now)  And then they had the legion of BOOM for a defense, those guys were a 9 or 10.  They could stuff the run AND play great man-to-man.

Their opponents in the super bowl.  Great QB, average (maybe even less than average) OL and average defense.  Match those three together on both sides of the ball and well, you saw what happened...

(Also see Alabama vs. Notre Dame from a couple of years ago, almost the exact same game)

Football Isn't Hard.  (period)